Weekly Summary (07/06 – 13/07/2026)

The week was marked by swings in international markets and by the movement of the rate central bank base rate here. Let’s get to what matters: how the dollar and euro behaved, what the central bank base rate did to your portfolio, and a practical tip for you who want to stay in control of your investments.

Weekly Summary (07/06 – 13/07/2026)

1. Dollar and Euro – Weekly Trend

  • Dollar (USD/BRL = $1.02) – After closing the previous week at $1.02, the dollar rose gradually, gaining about 0.6 % to reach $1.02. The increase was driven by U.S. inflation data that came in higher than expected, and by the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer. In practice, this means that if you usually buy imported products or travel abroad, your wallet will feel an extra pinch.

  • Euro (EUR/BRL = $1.17) – The euro also rose, but at a more modest pace, advancing 0.3 % in the same period. The difference between the euro and dollar quotes is still around $0.14, indicating that the local currency is weaker against the European single currency. If you have a trip planned to Europe or are thinking of investing in funds that buy assets there, it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

The good news is that volatility was not so aggressive; the pairs oscillated within narrow ranges, which brings a bit of peace of mind for those with investments tied to foreign currencies.

2. Central Bank Base Rate and the Impact on Investments

On Monday, the monetary policy committee decided to keep the central bank base rate at 13.75 % per year. The Committee explained that inflation is still above the target and that, for now, there is no room for cuts. For the investor, this has two practical consequences:

2. Central Bank Base Rate and the Impact on Investments

  1. Fixed income – Public bonds (government bonds) continue to yield close to the official rate, keeping them as “safe haven” for those who want to preserve capital without much risk exposure. If you have money saved in savings, it’s worth moving to government bonds or to certificates of deposit (CDs) from solid banks that pay a percentage of the interbank rate.

  2. Variable income – High interest rates tend to make stocks more expensive, as the opportunity cost of investing in companies rises. Sectors like consumer and retail may feel pressure, while utilities (energy, water) tend to be more resilient. If you have a stock portfolio, consider strengthening positions in companies that pay consistent dividends – they usually perform better when rates are high.

3. Practical Tip for the Individual Investor

Use an app that consolidates everything in one place.
I usually recommend FinMoovi as if it were a friend who understands finance. It lets you track your investments in local currency, dollars and euros, and shows performance in real time. That way, you can instantly see if the dollar variation is affecting your overseas investment fund or if that certificate of deposit (CD) is yielding above the central bank base rate. The integrated view avoids surprises when filing your tax return.

4. What to Expect Next Week

  • Exchange rate: The expectation is that the dollar will continue to rise, but with less force, as U.S. employment indicators are expected to show some slowdown. The euro may stabilize around $1.16, unless news emerges about the energy crisis in Europe.

  • Central bank base rate: The market still expects the monetary policy committee to keep the rate at 13.75 % in upcoming meetings, but keep an eye on inflation releases. Any surprise could open room for a revision.

  • Investments: With a stable central bank base rate, the search for fixed‑income alternatives with returns above the interbank rate should grow. There may also be opportunities in private credit funds, which usually benefit from higher rates.

Quick summary: Dollar and euro rose, the central bank base rate stayed firm and your portfolio needs to adapt to high rates. Take advantage of tools like FinMoovi to monitor everything simply and keep diversifying to reduce risk. Have a good investment week!

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